The US Department of Agriculture released its latest findings regarding food inflation through its consumer price index for food. The index shows food inflation continues upwards. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has consistent findings which show food prices at a record high in 2025.
Consumer Price Index for Food
The index, a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.2 percent from June 2025 to July 2025 and was up 2.7 percent from July 2024. The CPI for all food increased 0.2 percent from June 2025 to July 2025. Food prices in July 2025 were 2.9 percent higher than in July 2024.
Tariffs are expected to lead to sustained upward pricing pressure. Continued tariff action on countries such as Mexico will cause a steepening rise in produce prices for items such as tomatoe, avocado and fruit. The recent 50% tariff imposed on Brazil by President Trump over his friend Bolsonaro being pushed out of office will not only cause coffee prices to surge, it has the potential to destabilize the world wide coffee market. Brazil is the standard for establishing coffee futures.
Record Food Price Highs in 2025
Since 2019, food prices began to swing upwards. This was exacerbated by supply chain disruptions during the covid-19 pandemic and then supply shocks felt worldwide in post pandemic recovery. Inflation hit economies throughout the world. In the US, the prices did not come down. Here in 2025, there are no concrete steps being taken towards reducing prices, and instead, the tariffs “strategy” coming from the White House is making it worse. The GOP controlled congress ceded its authority to impose tariffs to the White House which is unprecedented.
A Granular Look
Datasembly’s Grocery Price Index does an excellent job of measuring weekly changes, which confirms the findings of the Dept. Of Agriculture and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Their robust data visualization tool provides for viewing the data according to consumer category and spatially on a per state basis.
What We Are Owed
On the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly said, “I will bring down grocery prices on day one.” So far, a series of arbitrary tariffs have been imposed on nations from which we purchase food products at a cost below which we are able to produce them, and some of which we have no capacity to produce. At the same time, the Republican controlled congress gave up their authority to impose tariffs, giving it to President Trump. In the last campaign, we were promised lower prices, not higher. The continued inflation will certainly have a ripple effect on small business. Enough. We must demand of our Republican US legislators that they take back their tariff responsibility. President Trump has had 7 months and has done tariffs that are causing grocery prices to continue upwards.
Resources
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings